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  • thakurrajiv
    09-24 08:27 AM
    Well, here�s some more stat : Base on GC allocation of FY 2008 (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY08-AR-TableV(Part2).pdf ),

    EB1 India got 5,327 visas , EB2 India got 14,818 and EB3 India got 3,576 even though the quota was 2,803 for each preference.

    As an example, I-485 pending for EB2 and EB3 India before 2006 are 17,835 and 46,334 respectively. Everything else being equal, you can take a guess how long it would take based how old the report was. Even if the report is from yesterday to be pessimistic and there are nuances, it gives some approximation unless the interpretation is totally wrong.

    Thanks for posting this. Lets see how visa allocation worked for 2009. Based on 2008, things do not look as rosy. Only 14.8K visas in EB2-I. If perm speed improves then the spill overs will also reduce.
    Surprising South Korea is not in oversubscribed countries. It received 7.2K EB2 visas.
    I thought South Korea should have been retrogressed. Well when do we expect fairness from USCIS ? They seem to follow class system : ROW, china, other over-subscribed, India in this order !!





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  • chanduv23
    07-04 08:54 AM
    We need a funny, innovative, catchy, entertaining cartoon on youtube that will catch everyone's attention. Youtube seems to be the most powerful medium of communication.

    This must give a strong message to the agencies who played this dirty game on immigrants





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  • krishmunn
    06-15 01:17 PM
    What is your solution to remove retrogession. Recapture bill may fetch you gc but not for all persons and after 1 or 2 years again backlog will increase to similar level. Permanent solution will be increase annual gc numbers and restrict H1b and L1 based on requirement. You are not going to get unlimited GC numbers any time but L1 numbers are unlimited(about 80k in 2007) and H1b numbers were 125K in 2007. In this situation if there is annual cap retrogession is going to become worse if atleast 50% of H1bs apply for GC every year.
    This year numbers were much less due to recession,rfes and denials. But due to 195k H1bs issued upto 2003 Eb3 will not improve for another 2 years.

    "H1B numbers were 125K in 2007"
    Holly cow ! I always thought H1B cap is set to 65K (except for a few years in early 2000) :-)

    The 125K which you mentioned is popularly used by anti-immigrant lobbys to push their argument. It includes all H1B transfers NOT only the fresh H1.
    So, if X get his H1 in 2006 and change to a new company in 2007 , you will count X against 2006 as well as 2007 giving a false number. However, if X applies for a GC, it is not 2X applying for GC --- just X .

    Recapture bill will help a lot in clearing the backlog. For future EB GC, if the dependents are not counted for immigrant visa, it will be much cleaner. Not all L1 and H1 apply for GC. Mostly the major Indian IT companies DO NOT sponsor GC (and as you know they are the major users of L1).





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  • delax
    07-25 09:47 AM
    IMO, both arguments and are valid as far as speculations are concerned. It all depends on perspective. In this thread, we are focusing on statistics and calculations. I my self did lot of calculations. However, objectively looking at Ron's comments, it appears like his concern and underlying message is what if USCIS won't adjudicate enough numbers and wastes visa numbers as it did lot of times. He is basing his prediction on years of experience. With recent pressure on DOS/USCIS to use visa number, I think, they are making an attempt to use up all numbers and that will definitely bring life to our calculations. But what If they do not do that.....and their 'target' is a low number.

    What you say can certainly happen, but I beleive that the pressure on USCIS is exponentially greater after last summer. People are watching their every step very closely. They got away with their inefficiency in prior years because the bottleneck was not USCIS - it was DOL that took a zillion years to clear labor petitions. Additionally the visa recapture of 2000 ensured no retrogression until 2005. Even after 2005 there were very few 485's to approve because of a) very low perm applications/approvals in 2005 and early 2006 and b) all the 2003/2004 labors were stuck in BEC's and were approved only in late 2006 or early 2007 (like yours truly - mine was actually an RIR but the BEC classified it as Traditional Recruitment and began recruiting for the position - but thats another story).
    Net net; USCIS inefficiency was masked under DOL's backlog - but now their transgressions are out in the open and they cant hide anymore behind DOL especially after last summer.

    As much as Ron Gotcher has been accurate in the past, I think he is missing the point this time. At an ulterior level he needs to show USCIS in poor light because he only recommends CP for his clients. If I were his client and I hear him say that this year USCIS is different then I am bound to switch over from CP to AOS!



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  • chanduv23
    06-28 01:29 PM
    I heard that Fedex is going on strike in Nebraska in the month of July and will end their strike when retro kicks in?

    Did anyone else hear this?? Can anyone post a valid link to this other than

    OH OH OH OH Mathew site link????

    :D :D :D :D :D





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  • a.j.2048
    03-27 11:55 AM
    Mayawati, Jayalalitha and Chandrababu have a good chance. I think it will be Jayalalitha.



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  • geevikram
    11-09 11:41 PM
    I would love to see how close is Sachug with his predictions once Dec bulletin comes through..





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  • dilber
    07-29 02:21 PM
    It seems they are accounted separately in these Appointment schedule sheets, there are multiple entries for same "BMB CASE NUMBER" which I assume is one per primary applicant. So I think the dependents are accounted for in the 100 number that i.e. being projected.

    In any case even if it is not it will move up to what 220 (assuming 2.2 people per primary applicant) it will still be a very small part of 20000+ odd visa that are being projected in this thread. I think the idea being circulated by the Ron and Murtys of this world that DOL pushed out the dates to get CP to use up the numbers that USCIS is incapable or unwilling to use seems to go down the drain I don't think DOL cares about 100 odd visas that much.:)



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  • gjoe
    02-15 07:13 AM
    I am going to use AC21 from March. I notified my employer (GC sponsor) about this decision during the first week of Feb. I had been working with him for close to 6 yrs but never had any problems so far.
    But today he didn't pay me. I should get 3 more paychecks including this one for 15Feb and I have my vacation days which would make up for another additional 80% of a pay check. The total would run to 18k+, if I just keep quiet and let it go I will lose the money and also what I beleive in (Freedom).
    If am not able to get my money from my employer I am going to file a lawsuit to recover the pay and also the legal fees from him. And also I am going to file a case against my employer and USCIS for being partners in doing this slave trade in America.
    I strongly beleive that the H1B system and the EB greencard system has been setup to legally bring in high skilled workers as slaves and exploit them by taking away their freedom. We are no better than illegals, in the way we are treated by the goverment and the employers.
    I will fight this case atleast to try to prove my point before I leave this place.
    I am looking for some civil rights agency which can help me with the lawsuit. My fight is not for the GC, but it is for justice.





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  • AB1275
    09-25 03:51 PM
    I have applied on EB2. My PD is Oct 2006. My I-140/I-485 was filed concurrantly. How long do you think is my wait?



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  • chintu25
    02-13 11:23 AM
    Ok - so what is it going to cost us to get a consult with Rajiv Khanna? Anyone know this? Until we have more details on this, I commit $25 for this first consultation. (I will gladly raise the commitment once I know how much this will cost and if IV Core Members support this initiative).

    We have three now and atleast 8 who supported this issue on the thread





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  • vdlrao
    09-17 02:03 AM
    I got the below numbers from the PERM FDLC site for the applications filed in 2005 and approved in different years of 2005,6,7,8
    2005 India 1353 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2005)
    2006 India 3888 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2006)
    2007 India 60 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2007)
    2008 India 10 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2008)

    Total 5311
    5311 for both EB1-5 : So taking 50% for EB2I - 2655
    GC : 2655*2.5 = 6637 ~ 6500 (considering lucky 2008 Aug-Sep approvals, 2009 Sept)
    These are the right numbers for the 2005. Thanks for tempgc for doing this. And the corresponding numbers 3888, 60, 10 have to be deducted against from the years 2006, 2007 and 2008 respectively.



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  • Marphad
    05-18 10:44 AM
    Oh Yeah? Says who? You? and made you the boss?

    So you mean to say we have to listen to imposter like you who is roaming around in immigration forum with chargeability as United States? There could be only 2 reasons for this:

    1. You want to use fake profile to spread non-sense rumours and un-necessary posts.
    2. You are anti-immigrant.

    In both cases I want to show you door. Have a nice day buddy. Now please leave.





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  • greatguy
    01-24 10:07 AM
    I think, it is too light a sentence for the crook



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  • neoklaus
    02-13 03:05 PM
    Are you suggesting that IV's efforts would increase the wait times for ROW?
    What incentive does ROW have to work with IV then?

    Generally speakin' we are all "Rest of the World".

    Let's not just be theoretic. Our positive thinking and movement together will help resolve the issues.

    Even that I'm here since 2000 & my husband 1999(H1B-ROW) we will wait and fight together with India, China...

    Go, India! Go, China!





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  • Jerrome
    09-24 09:53 AM
    I think your analysis considers EB1(ROW)+EB2(ROW) spill over to EB3(ROW) that is not true,

    EB1 Overflow ---> EB2
    EB2 Overflow ---> EB2(I)+EB China

    That means as per your calculation, it would be 19,282 considering 0 EB1 and EB2 filled in 2010.

    As i said in my previous posts EB2 would be May 2006 by end of this year for sure.
    Best case scenario considering more than 30K spill over it would be end of 2006.

    You are also calculating spillover as of today with the pending cases, but the spill over happens only in Last quarter of 2010. There would be some if not more EB1+EB2 ROW applicants.

    Based on following link:

    http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20%28Left%20Nav%20Parents%29/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

    28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
    28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
    28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


    Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

    WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

    Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
    2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
    3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
    11784 will go to EB2
    4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
    over to EB3.
    5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
    6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
    of other countries.


    Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
    2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
    3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
    8033 will go to EB2
    4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
    over to EB3.
    5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
    still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

    Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
    2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
    3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
    Total 10924 will go to EB2
    4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
    year 2011 with pending approval.
    5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
    6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
    of other countries.

    Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
    2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
    3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
    11374 will go to EB2
    4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
    pending for year 2011.
    5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
    and pushed to year 2011.

    Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
    2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
    3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
    Total 11692 will go to EB2
    4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
    EB3 category.
    5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
    6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
    of other countries.


    TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

    Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.



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  • Desichakit
    07-24 07:33 PM
    Ever Since August Bullitien came out Ron has posted not to raise any hopes





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  • jelo
    05-11 07:10 PM
    buddy,

    I'm already in my beloved place and with your contribution and help to Immigration Voice, I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Thanks for the help.

    Remember, you are doing this to potentially ditch India and to change your nationality and are going to take oath

    "I hereby declare, on oath, that I absolutely and entirely renounce and abjure all allegiance and fidelity to any foreign prince, potentate, state, or sovereignty of whom or which I have heretofore been a subject or citizen; that I will support and defend the Constitution and laws of the United States of America against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same..............."

    Looks like my posting hit the nerve hard, i see it from your response.

    Good Luck

    Dude

    you are such a contradicting personality. If I take the above oath, at least I will be loyal to the country of my citizenship. somebody washed your brain with too much of what it is not in reality. You have to put your country before your race, color, ethnicity and religion. That is what I learnt as definition for citizenship. I have very good tamil friends and even showed your statement. I am glad that they just hate your personality and you are an atypical Indian tamil.





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  • RandyK
    05-01 02:46 PM
    Dude,

    DO NOT bring politics into this forum.

    LTTE is a terrorist organization banned all over the world, first by India and US.

    If you go read about the situation on the UN site you will find out that the civilians are held hostage by the LTTE and that is the main reason for the civilians to be in this situation.

    If you want to see what LTTE is doing to their OWN people click on the link below and click on the link on the right hand side on top. You will see like 20 LTTE terrorists shooting at like 5000 tamils trying to escape from them. This was taken from a UAV of the SL Gov like a week ago.

    http://www.defence.lk/hm/hm.asp





    Macaca
    07-04 09:19 AM
     Age out situations with children
     Once a child turns 21 he/she can no longer be filed with the primary applicant. However, once the I485 is filed with USCIS the child is regarded as "safe" regardless of how long the USCIS takes to adjudicate the I485.

    I have that very situation. My son turn 21 in mid-January 2008.

    This is a HUGE issue if it is true. Can we verify it preferably with a URL?

    This is what I meant when I said that we should identify all the issues and worry about english later. BTW, this is what is taught in a writing course: outline first, english later.

    I have scanned most of the letters posted in thread. I will carefully scan them again and add their issues to my skelton.

    Most of the letters are missing or not stressing some HUGE points like above. These HUGE points are bold faced in the articles I post. Editorials have a lot of these so called punch lines.





    dummgelauft
    06-15 09:15 PM
    I am certainly hoping that I will get by EOY 2011. It's more than hope, I feel pretty confident that by that time I should get it. Just mark my words, come back on dec 31, 2011 and check with me. You have to believe before you get it. Have faith guys. Sooner or later the man who wins is the one who thinks he can!!!!

    NNReddy, good for you if you believe this.
    I myself find it hard to do so. Infact, I envy your optimism.



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